When the Prime minister upped his sticks and flew to Paris to take part in the International donor conference about the country, he above anyone else knew the high stakes involved in the outcome of the meeting. It was not only because he has a lot to loose if his mission went bad but also because he has a lot to win if it went well. The two day international get-together of the country's development partners couldn't have come at a better time for the current PM's team. The few months it has been in power has plunged the novice team of technocrats into a string of troubles and triggered calls for its resignation. The skeptics assume that the team would have been long gone had it not been for the support and trust of the president. Weak and isolated, the PM staked his future and that of his cabinet on Paris conference, hoping to win enough foreign investment from it to pick himself up from the floor and restore the credibility of his cabinet. He knows better than anyone else that the support of his boss will be short-lived if he does not do something to turn the tide and address the host of crises which rocked his government and the many other crises which are still in store for him. At some point down the road, the president will have to do without him if he remains to be a political burden which draws constant fire from a bullish opposition and an outraged public. Under these exceptional circumstances, the PM headed to Paris, counting his lucky stars that a light has finally shone in the tunnel of his troubles and that if he does well he will be able to mend the fences back home.
It turned out he did well and emerged out victorious from Paris. After two days of difficult talks, he was able to persuade the international donors to support his development programme, in which he laid out plans to implement economic reforms and reduce poverty over the period from 2008 to 2010. The result was a promise to donate $2.104 billion, way above what he was expecting.
Now, PM zz is back and we can bet that the people who were in their thousands ready to finish him before Paris are now sparing nothing to be onboard with him after it. In spite of all the talk about democracy and rule of law, we still fear and revere powerful leaders and go out of our way to prove loyalty to them. Now, zz is a reborn PM whose success in Paris will play down very well among ordinary Mauritanians and will, therefore, do a lot to change power balance with his opponents. We can expect him to step out of the shadow of the president, be more assertive and assume a more prominent role in the running of his government and the wider public interest. There is no doubt that this will be a long and tedious rebranding road which will see some of his friends turning into enemies, but if he’s going to use the Paris success to improve his popular standing he needs to be more aggressive, talk more to the media and does what it takes to run the show. It goes without saying, however, that zz may choose not to be his own man and hand over the success to Sidioca. If he does, he will be dealing a fatal blow to his future political career and will go down in history as a low-profile and subservient public servant.
Common sense has it that if ZZ decides to play hardball and capitalize on his achievement in Paris, he will risk antagonizing his immediate entourage, starting with influential political figures from the pro- government majority and ending with the president himself. There’re top and power-wielding political figures who want to keep zz weak in order to maintain their influence, and to be able to pull the strings of the show from backstage. But the major threat will come from the president himself who will not tolerate a strong and popular PM who has run against him in the last election and will very likely stand in the next one. Sidioca will be very quick to cut zz’s wings before he stretches them, even if the cost is the failure of the government and its reform plan.
As to the opposition, its strategy is too obvious to be stated. It plays weak when faced with a strong PM and the other way around, bullish if the government is confused and undecided.
The question, then, is which way ZZ will be going, to be strong and face the music or weak and keep his post. The answer to this question is anyone’s guess as only zz knows what on zz’s mind. The question for us bears on the impact of this abrupt twist of national politics on the development of the country and the smooth work of the state.
Without much guessing, I think a mix of strong and weak zz is exactly what is need to steer the country away from the political and economic brink on which it’s perched now. A strong PM who is aware of the stakes for himself and for the nation will not succumb to pressure from Rumuz alfasad and will push his reform agenda forward. He knows that a repeat of Taya’s style of government will ruin his political future and damage his credibility. Yet a weak PM is a safe guard against political infighting in the cabinet and will also facilitate the work of the government. The least we need now is a divided leadership which is torn apart by political rivalry and unable to put its differences aside. A smooth running of the country will create confidence inside and outside and generate a suitable environment for development.
I have the impression that some mix of the sort is already underway in the government. With Sidioca in charge of the broad line of governance zz is left to take care of the do's and don'ts of his reform program. He will be overseeing the launch of the anti-corruption national day tomorrow. Hope he will prove me true, lol.
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