19 Candidates For One Post, A Likely Fierce Fight.

Within a month from now, eligible Mauritanian voters will be choosing from a long list of 19 candidates who will run the country for the next five years. There is a luxury of choice, definitely. At the same time, voters will have troubles making their minds about the picks. After all, and irrespective of the standard of selection, there will always be two or more contenders who meet each voter's idea of the would-be next president, so much so that it would throw some into confusion. Just think what would happen if, by our mainstream undemocratic standards, you are called to choose between two candidates who are your relatives, from your region or simply paid you the same sums of money. Difficult and confusing choice, isn't it? As you see, more candidates means more chances to do a good bargain but also more second thoughts and procrastination.(lol)

Now, who to choose and why? The political landscape in its current shape is divided into three alliances: Mithaq, CFCD and the new-born Heidala camp The fabric of each of these alliances is so loose and fragile that it could crumble at any time and the parties which form it share very little else than temporary and tactical political ambitions. We're still a long way from strategic alliances based on common vision and shared civil programs, so much so that the current political formations can be mixed, reshuffled, exchanged and intermingled without any significant impact on the main political players who count for their popular support on sources other than party programs. This is why it's difficult to tell who is in the opposition and who is not, and whether terms like opposition and ruling majority really apply to our context. In the absence of clear and binding political programs, people move easily from the opposition to rally behind the government and back. It's never been an issue in Mauritanian politics.

You may rightly say this is a long restatement of the obvious. OK, but it's useful to put things in perspective before we can come to a view of the different contenders and how they rank. To play by the book, contenders who stand no chance for winning are not worth their time. So let's start by eliminating:

M. Ahmed O. Bab Ahmed Ould Salhi; Mulay Elhassan O. Jeid; Isalmu O. Mustafa; Muhamed O. Sheikhna; M.O.M.Elmukhtar O. Tumi; Rashid Mustafa; Ba Mamadu Alassan; M. O. Gulam O. Sidati; Sidi O. Muhamed Ahid; Outhman O. Abu Elmaali; Ibrahima Sarr; Dahan O. Ahmed Mahmud.


The following are the candidates who are in the running because they have plans to win and most important have enough backing, if not to make it happen, at least to make a strong try.

Ahmed Ould Daddah
Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdellahi
Messud Ould Bulkhair
Zein Ould Zeidan
Saleh Ould Hananah
Mohamed Ould Mauloud
Ould Haidala

Ahmed Ould Daddah stands out among his rivals as the only candidate who has enough experience in the business to make it to the palace. He has been around right from the start of the political process back in the early nineties and had stood for the top post twice as the leader of the opposition. With the exception of few other political figures, Ahmed is credited for refusing to bow to twenty one years of Taya's blackmailing, setting a good example of what should be a principled opposition. It would be unfair, to say the least, to overlook the heavy price he paid to stand up to Taya's ruthless rule. It's enough to remember that he went to prison, suffered financial embargo and was sidelined by the system for two decades. That's to my knowledge is a heavy bill for a third world politician to foot. I was about to make a breakdown of Ahmed's academic and professional qualifications but remembered that it has little or no impact on where voters think he is. So skip it.

Above anything else, Ahmed may be remembered for being the only candidate who has enough cross-community credibility to win over Arab and Negro-African voters to his side. This alone is enough to make of him a heavy weight contender able to rally a united nation behind him if he is voted into office. An experienced, qualified and unifying figure, Ahmed stands a real chance to fight his way to the helm of power in the next elections.

Yet Ahmed's strength bears the seeds of his weakness. Most would argue that he is the candidate for failure since he was evicted twice from the race and there's every reason he'll be kicked out this time. To compound his misery, what is championed as Ahmed's steadfast opposition can be viewed as a lack of political vision and flexibility to initiate a dialogue with the government and spare the opposition twenty one years of political dead end and inaction. Also, some feel he has committed enough mistakes in his long history as a public figure to be able to revive his fortunes. To cut a long story short, he has overstayed his welcome.

There is no doubt that Ahmed Ould Daddah is the most controversial candidate. He is simultaneously viewed as a blessing and a curse, a unifying and divisive figure and a regionalist and internationalist. Like all leading politicians, Ahmed will be aggressively fighting his last battle in Mauritanian politics. If he fails there will be no next time. If he makes it, it will be a logical and decent farewell to the "Last of the Daddahs".

Masud Ould Bulkhier, a second controversial contender most known for his radical views about slavery in the country. A Haratin human rights activist Massud, the second heavyweight in the CFCD, will be staking his future leadership of the country on a well-mobilized and politically conscious Haratin community. Massud will be selling himself as a breakaway rebel who has a tumultuous history of resisting conformity and status-quo. And while his appeal will be limited to urban segments of the Haratins, his uncompromising stand on state corruption and outdated residues of the traditional tribal system will find positive echoes among Arab youth fed up with a dysfunctioning state and looking forward for a break with the past. Like Ahmed, Massud has achieved a good score in the last legislative and municipal polls and is a challenging and fascinating favorite to follow all the way through.

To me, Massud is very much like the Lebanese Shia leader, Hassan Nassar Allah. Each is a vocal voice of opposition and a leader of a community with a long history of marginalization and persecution. Both enjoy a good deal of support among youth outside their communities. But as much as Nassar Allah is likely to be always seen as shia leader so would be the future of Massud, the leader of the Haratins. Not yet, Massud.


Ould Hanannah is inspiring and charismatic. An ousted army lieutenant, he succeeded to mastermind the first real challenge to Taya's rule, exploding his way to the palace on the back of a military tank. Though thwarted two days after complete control over the palace and other sensitive and sovereign state sites, Hannanna military adventure shook Taya's regime from its roots for good. In a further show of bravery and commitment, he formed "Fursan Taqiir"- the Knights of Change- and kept the heat on Taya until his capture and final imprisonment.
Apart from his ardent Arab nationalism and ideological fervor, Hnannah is scoring points all the way long and his popularity is on the increase. The news are breaking now that "Islaheen" –Reformists- have announced their support for him.

It remains to be said, though, that Hanannah's chances will be negatively affected by his lack of credibility among the Negro-African community and other large segments of the national elite who don't trust his political maturity to lead the country. Few will be ready to rally behind someone who puts ideology ahead of politics and national interests.

On his own, Sedioca would have fought his way without any trouble. Like anyone else, he has a long history in national politics and has assumed administrative responsibilities as high as the portfolio of a minister. This alone would have set him on equal footing with his rivals. Yet Sedioca choose to seek the favor of the CMJD and corrupt ruling political and financial classes instead of appealing to the larger public. No wonder then, that from day one he was seen in the political scenes as a trouble maker, triggering more discontent than consensus wherever he goes.

Although he will be a figure of continuity, Sedioca is a strong favorite who enjoys enough political, financial and tribal support to lead the polls at least in the first round. Honestly, five years of him in office is unbearable.

Ould Mauloud, Zeidan and Heidala will be there to feed on the mistakes of the others.

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