Sidioca's Hopes Dashed Before The Race Underway

When Sidioca first broke his silence about his plans to run for the top post few months ago, he made the step that threw everyone else's fortunes into doubt. By almost anyone's estimation, Sidioca is the only exit strategy the CMJD can put together in its desperate attempt to hold a middle ground between the strongly voiced remnants of the old regime and the anti-Taya opposition. He was a man who incurred the anger of Taya and fired by him out of the cabinet and yet preferred to shoulder his humiliation to break up with Taya's entourage. The trend then has it that the best way to have the favors of the regime is to keep the opposition card at hand to use at times of adversity. High ranking officials were all subjected to Taya's blackmailing but they developed an extraordinary survival skills like keeping backdoor channels with the opposition to pressurize Taya and counter any intentions of wrongdoing. This is why we have the tribal wisdom of securing a place with the government and another with the opposition to be able to use them if need be.

Sidioca was among the few who chose to do it the Oedipus way, leaving everything behind and embarking upon a world tour as a back packer (lol). It's precisely this mix of continuity and break and of being outside the ring of Taya and yet close to it that made him an excellent pick for the CMJD. We would be shortsighted to assume that the military junta would share a vision of Mauritania like the one defended by the opposition. It would equally be an oversimplification to think they came to power just to rehabilitate the status-quo and buy more time. Their plan is to appease both sides and keep them at bay while relying on time to effect a drastic change in the political landscape. As a far as this calculation goes, two years of the transition and five of Sidioca in power is a length of time enough to bring a new elite to forefront and do without the current one. But the worry that gripped the military from day one was that Sidioca may not be the winning card they thought him to be. As much they tried to rehabilitate him he continued his zero-gravity dive to the ground "huma yentruh elfug U Mulana yentru ettaht".

The support of the CMJD helped build a quick and across the board alliance that swept the municipal and legislative elections and looked ready to win by a landslide in the presidential contest. With money and power on his side, Sidioca could have picked himself up, dust himself off and went ahead to victory. Yet to do that he has to lead a bullish campaign and attract more supporters or at least preserve his edifice from falling apart. None of this was on Sidioca's mind, his strategy being "Ely will parent me to the helm of power". He almost did nothing to bolster his credibility, losing permanently to the opposition and ZZ, who is allegedly running on behalf of the old regime's cronies. Sedioca has made up to now only two public appearances, one in a press conference and the other in a visit to a small obscure village on the outskirts of Butilimitt. This happens at a time the presidential hopefuls are roaming the country, meeting dignitaries, holding alliances and sharing their views with the voters. He reminds me of a complacent Taya who in his last years was turning supporters away to join the opposition. Sidioca was acting like he has no stakes, or may be he thought the CMJD had toppled Taya to hand power over to him. Wake up Sidioca, we're not talking about the portfolio of fish ministry, it's the top post and you've got to fight for it. Whatever was running through Sidioca's mind it was not helping him to get back into the race. And the CMJD was quick to come to this frustrating conclusion.

This alone accounts for the cracks which start to emerge in the El Mithaq and the related talk about the CMJD's neutrality. Some were inclined to see that it's the beginning of a split within the CMJD itself between Ely and his powerful relative O. Abdel Aziz, and that Sidioca was caught in the middle. Nothing can be far from the truth. The two guys who masterminded the fall of Taya are not going to loose each other over Sidioca, but we always hope to see infighting tearing apart those who have power.

The truth of the matter is that Ely, faced with a defiant opposition and an ambitious ZZ, was running out of choices. He has to try to nurse Sidioca back into life and that will be like flogging a dead horse, a hopeless case. Or, turn his back to his promises of fairness and neutrality and undertake a new misadventure which will lead him nowhere. The third choice is the most reasonable even if it means letting Sidioca down in the middle of the road. It has to do with a negotiated deal with some key opposition leaders in return for the CMJD keeping its hands off the elections and abandoning Sidioca. It's in this light that the late series of meetings that Ely held with some of the prominent figures of the opposition and the subsequent collective and individual withdrawals from "Elmithaq" can make sense.

Sidioca, this is your lesson: silence and obedience are launching you as the biggest loser. Because of them you lost to Taya and now you're losing to the CMJD. Anybody else down the list "wasukutu ani el kalami al mubah" (lol).

mom