Campaigning Around the Clock, Ahmed and Ely, Ould Mauloud and Ely

It's secret to no one that the real presidential campaign is never the one officially announced and scheduled by the interior ministry, and fought off in the dimly lit tents set up nationwide for the occasion. Major politicians generally keep themselves busy planning their political ambitions all over the year. We often ask why the government and the opposition are caught in the same moral crisis of failing to deliver on the issues that top their agendas. The explanation is not very far to seek. It happens that both parties have no agendas other than how to be in power and are willing to go great lengths to make it happen. Once the election is over and a new government is named, the two sides embark upon the up-hill job of preparing for the next elections, an son on. They simply can't take their minds off it. Each side, in its own way, spends the entire year clinching deals, meeting social dignitaries and forming alliances to make sure that its passage to power will be smooth and guaranteed. When the official campaign kicks off it is always a time for fun and rest after a long year of hard work and long-awaited presidential polls ahead. It's a time-out for the political actors and a rare moment of celebration for women and children to cheer up and enjoy the boisterous nocturnal get- together. Generally by the time the official campaign had started, the contenders would have had a clear idea of where they fit in the pattern and the chances they stood in the race. This is why the parties which put more money in the show, buying more tents, having more pin-ups, more singers and so on, are the ones which by all forecasts- secret and public- will lead the race. Those who know their chances are slim usually keep a low profile presence.

The government uses carrot-and-stick style of campaigning, buying supporters with generous hand-outs, appointments and bribes and threatening severe punishment against individuals who turn down the tantalizing offers. In the opposition, things are a little different. Having nothing to give or to deny, party leaders in the opposition have to double the promises for everyone, everyone ready to listen or to join. While the government targets influential social and elite figures because it has state coffers on its disposal to foot the costly financial bill, the opposition targets whoever happens to be within its reach because it has only promises to table and has never been into power to do the pay back.

This political (mis)conduct has been in the making for a long time and is likely to continue through the transition and beyond. There's however a new change which is too important to be missed or to pass unnoticed. It is that the opposition is now fighting the campaign on the side of the government rather than opposing it. I am not talking about the national consensus which followed the fall of Taya and which all parties contributed to make and spared no occasion to tell us that they want to preserve. This is about individual initiatives with the intent to win the backing of the government. We're quite familiar with the government's plans to win some parties from the opposition to its side but the other way around is definitely a first.

I have in mind two incidents which took place over the week and which tell a lot about the grim outlook that lay ahead for us. Ahmed Ould Daddah was invited to the grey palace for a meeting with Ely Ould Mohamed Vall. The eye-to-eye meeting was held behind closed doors and nothing of it was leaked to the press or found its way to the public in any other way. I'm not going to dwell on the secrecy part. It is a second nature of our high profile talks to be kept away from the public, we're used to it. What's striking, though, is that it's the first time Ahmed was in the palace alone without his comrades in combat from the opposition. It's also the first time that he sat down with Ely after he launched his campaign, in Idini. The two men have high stakes in the upcoming elections and each has a lot to give to the other.

Ely is smart enough to understand he can't do two coups in the span of two years, one on Taya and another on the opposition. He is well placed to know that steering clear of the challenges of the aftermath of his coup on Taya requires having the opposition on board. Ely knows that to keep the demons of Taya in their underworld he has only one choice, and that is to make the transition a success and no way to do that without the opposition. Also, if Ely has any long-term plans to run for office, better for him to bank on the image of the savior who toppled Taya and handed power to an elected government than keep power for himself or set up a weak government by proxy. I'm not with view that Ely is so stupid to follow in the lead of the former dictator. For him, Ahmed is the right man at the right time to do this mission quite possible. So far this looks quite familiar. There's nothing strange in the government trying to use the opposition for its ends. But for the opposition to court the favors of the government instead of attacking it is the novelty. We expect candidates from the opposition to make good scores in elections by criticizing the record of the government, not by rallying behind it. Yet this is what Ahmed is exactly doing and it's not in vain. In fact, Ahmed has never been so out of shape in his long history in the opposition. Except for the brief break of political uncertainty which followed the ousting of Taya, Ahmed has been on a race down to the bottom. It's no secret that he has lost his support among the Negro-African communities for number of parties, including his rival enemy PRDS and his rival friend Ould Mauloud, attracted "Rumuz ALfasad" and lost them, and to compound it all there emerged Ould Hananna to take way the Reformists. With Massud, there is no love lost. Ahmed is on a daily political diet constantly losing more weight to friends and foes alike, reason why he failed to rally the opposition under his leadership.

With this miserable score Ahmed went to meet Ely alone in the palace. And make no mistakes, his aim was not to have the hands of Ely off the political process but quite the contrary, to get him more involved but on his side. We have to wait to find out whether Ely is ready to go that far. But as we can tell from Ely's plans he certainly doesn't have any interest in making a Sidioca out of Ahmed. He wants a strong Ahmed in the opposition, to allow a smooth transition, but not in the leadership of the country. Period. Ahmed, did you learn your lesson? Apparently, the answer is no.

The other incident in this "anti-campaign" by the opposition is the funny news that Ould Mauloud was the guest of Ely Cheikh Ould Mama. It's becoming a trend for the opposition leaders to be fond of people who have "Ely as a first name". I don't know why, but Ould Maulould on the dinner table of Ely Cheikh is not something that you're likely to see everyday. What a mix: a revolutionary with Marxist credentials with a Sufi Cheikh. What do you make of this? I'm completely in the dark.

It's sad that we can no longer tell who is who and which is which in our political landscape. But one thing is sure that the opposition is becoming more and more like a toothless talking shop.

mom