لقاء حي مع السيد الرئيس والمرشح صالح ولد حننا

في سابقة هي الأولى من نوعها تتشرف المدونة باستضافة سيادة الرئيس والمرشح صالح ولد حننا في لقاء حي للإجابة على أسئلة واستشكالات مجتمع المدونات في البلاد وخارجها. وقد قبل فخامة الرئيس مشكورا دعوتنا لإنارة الرأي العام الوطني حول أهم القضايا التي تتصدر سلم أولوياته.

سينطلق الحوار عند الساعة الواحدة والنصف بالتوقيت الموريتاني أي توقيت اغرينيتش وسيتواصل حتى الثانية تماما. ونرجو من المشاركين في اللقاء إثراء النقاش قصد استبيان البرنامج الانتخابي للمرشح والوقوف على تفاصيله عن طريق أسئلة واضحة مختصرة جدا قدر الإمكان.

محاور النقاش هي كالتالي:

- الخلفية السياسية للسيد الرئيس وعلاقته أو عدمها بالنظام السابق
- نضاله في الداخل والخارج (تلك الفترة مالها وما عليها)
- حاتم وفرسان التغيير أي من التنظيمين كتبت له الحياة ولما ذا الانسحابات في صفوف رفاق الرئيس القدامى
- المسألة الإسلامية
- العلاقات مع إسرائيل
- ملفات حقوق الإنسان والأقليات الإفريقية
- البرنامج المدني للرئيس

ونرجو أن تكون هذه هي الحلقة الأولى ضمن سلسلة من اللقاءات ننظمها مع أبرز المرشحين للرئاسة وغيرهم من صناع الرأي في البلاد

عذرا، خيار التعليقات سيبقى معلقا حتى ثوان قبل الحوار ومن يود التعليق قبل ذلك فعليه الدخول إلى القصة (المدونة) السابقة

mom

A New Road Map For Political Practice In The Country

The menu today is not like anything you've ever seen. In the last blog about Sidioca I hinted to the existence of a plan to change the political scene in the country. If you remember, I said something like seven years from now are enough to bring a new elite to the forefront and get rid of the current one. Yes, it turns out that the forecast is true.

The cabinet has issued a new law charting a road map for the opposition. Putting the house of the opposition in order includes in addition to a new fat pay and fancy accommodation, setting restrictions and boundaries that would be regarded as a new legal frame of reference binding for the opposition.

As I can tell from the new law, it has some good points but it needs a lot of maturity from both the government and the opposition to stick to it and not just use it to harass and blackmail one's political rivals.

mom

Here's the statement in Arabic


الجمهورية الإسلامية الموريتانية
رئاسة المجلس العسكري للعدالة والديمقراطية
مشروع الأمر القانوني رقم---المتضمن نظام المعارضة
20-02-2007

الفصل الأول أحكام عامة

المادة الأولى: يهدف هذا الأمر القانوني إلى وضع نظام قانوني للمعارضة السياسية من أجل ترسيخ وتوطيد الديمقراطية، التعددية وتشجيع مشاركة جميع القوى السياسية في عملية البناء الوطنية.

يهدف المشروع إلى احتواء الحوار السياسي ضمن حدود الشرعية والاحترام المتبادل وضمان التناوب السلمي على السلطة.

المادة 2 تعترف الدولة أن الخيارات السياسية مسألة شخصية بحتة

المادة 3 حقوق المعارضة مضمونة وغير قابلة للتصرف.

المادة 4 لا يجوز إقصاء أي مواطن يتمتع بحقوقه المدنية والسياسية بسبب انتمائه لتشكيلة سياسية معارضة.

المادة 5 تتحدد المعارضة السياسية كتشكلة أو مجموعة مختلفة عن التشكيلات أو ائتلاف التشكيلات السياسية، الداعمة للعمل الحكومي.يمكن للمعارضة أن تكون برلمانية أو خارج إطار البرلمان يعين زعيم المعارضة من طرف التشكيلات المكونة للمعارضة يتمتع زعيم المعارضة بامتيازات تشريفية، ومادية تحدد بموجب مرسوم.

المادة 6 تمتع الكتل البرلمانية المعارضة من أجل سير عملها بذات الامتيازات المالية التي تتمتع بها كتل الأغلبية البرلمانية.

الفصل الثاني:الحقوق والواجبات والضمانات:

المادة 7 يعترف لكل تشكلة سياسية بالحق في المعارضة، كما يمكن لأي تشكلة معارضة اختيار المشاركة في مسؤولية الحكومة، حيث تتنازل في تلك الحالة عن صفتها المعارضة.

المادة 8 يمكن للتشكيلات السياسية المعارضة أن تكون تكتلا موحدا من أجل تنسيق نشاطها، لكن لا يمكن لأي تشكيلة أن تنتمي إلى أكثر من كتلة واحدة.

المادة: 9 للمعارضة الحق في انتقاد العمل الحكومي بصفة موضوعية، وبناءة، وبشكل يرسخ المشروع الديمقراطي، والتقدم مع احترام القيم السامية للشعب الموريتاني يجب على المعارضة على وجه الخصوص تفادي كل نوع من التجريح والقذف بحق الشخصيات أيا كانت والذي ينتقد تصرفاتها وأفكارها،وفي هذا الإطار، تضمن للمعارضة حرية التعبير، والأمن ولا يقيدها سوى القانون واحترام كرامة المواطنين وحرمتهم الجسدية والمعنوية.

المادة 10 للمعارضة الحق في الإطلاع على جميع القضايا الهامة المتعلقة بالحياة الوطنية، ومن أجل ذلك يسهل لها حرية النفاذ إلى الأخبار من طرف الو زارات والإدارات العمومية في حدود النصوص المعمول بها عند الضرورة وبطلب من المعارضة أو مبادرة من السلطات، يمكن استقبال قادة التشكيلات السياسية المعارضة، من طرف رئيس الجمهورية، رئيس الجمعية الوطنية، رئيس مجلس الشيوخ، الوزير الأول، وزير الداخلية، والسلطات الإدارية والجهوية، والمحلية.

المادة 11: يستشير رئيس الجمهورية، عند الضرورة زعيم المعارضة حول المشاكل الوطنية، والمسائل المتعلقة بالحياة الوطنية، وبموجب ذلك يجب، برمجة لقاء دوري، كل ثلاثة أشهر على الأقل.

المادة 12 تتمتع التشكيلات السياسية المعارضة بحق التمثيل حسب حجمها الانتخابي ، داخل الهيئات أو المؤسسات التي تشارك فيها تضمن النصوص المسيرة لتلك الهيئات أو المؤسسات، وخاصة أنظمتها الأساسية، والداخلية ذلك الحق، عبر إجراءات عملية يمكن لممثلي المعارضة الاستفادة من امتيازات مادية، أو معنوية، مرتبطة بالوظائف التي يشغلونها، في هذا الإطار.

المادة 13 تضمن تغطية نشاطات التشكيلات السياسية المعارضة من طرف وسائل الإعلام العمومي طبقا للقوانين المعمول بها تسهر هيئات التنظيم المختصة على احترام مبدإ الشمولية والمساواة بالنسبة لهذه التغطية.

المادة 14 يتمتع قادة التشكيلات السياسية، المعارضة مثل نظرائهم في الأغلبية بالامتيازات البروتوكولية والشرفية طبقا للنصوص المعمول بها.

المادة 15 فضلا عن أحكام الأمر القانوني المتعلق بالأحزاب السياسية، يجب على التشكيلات السياسية المعارضة أن تعمل أساسا على.

-احترام الدستور والمؤسسات.

-مجهود البناء الوطني.

-تنمية الفكر والثقافة الديمقراطية عند تكوين منتسبيها ومناصريها

-الثقافة الجمهورية عن طريق احترام قاعدة الأغلبية ومبدإ اللاعنف كوسيلة وحيدة للتعبير السياسي.

-المادة 16 تمارس التشكيلات السياسية المعارضة نشاطاتها السياسية والإعلامية، مع احترام النظم المعمول بها.

-المادة 17 يقدم زعيم المعارضة تقريرا سنويا حول تطبيق هذا الأمر القانوني، وتوصيات من شأنها تفعيله.

-يوجه التقرير إلى كل من رئيس الجمهورية، ورئيس الجمعية الوطنية، ومجلس الشيوخ ويتم نشره.

-الفصل الثالث:

-أحكام ختامية:

-المادة 18 عند الضرورة تحدد إجراءات هذا الأمر القانوني، بموجب مراسيم.

-المادة 19 بنشر هذا الأمر القانوني، الذي يلغي كافة الأحكام السابقة المخالفة في الجريدة الرسمية، ويطبق باعتباره قانونا للسلطة

Sidioca's Hopes Dashed Before The Race Underway

When Sidioca first broke his silence about his plans to run for the top post few months ago, he made the step that threw everyone else's fortunes into doubt. By almost anyone's estimation, Sidioca is the only exit strategy the CMJD can put together in its desperate attempt to hold a middle ground between the strongly voiced remnants of the old regime and the anti-Taya opposition. He was a man who incurred the anger of Taya and fired by him out of the cabinet and yet preferred to shoulder his humiliation to break up with Taya's entourage. The trend then has it that the best way to have the favors of the regime is to keep the opposition card at hand to use at times of adversity. High ranking officials were all subjected to Taya's blackmailing but they developed an extraordinary survival skills like keeping backdoor channels with the opposition to pressurize Taya and counter any intentions of wrongdoing. This is why we have the tribal wisdom of securing a place with the government and another with the opposition to be able to use them if need be.

Sidioca was among the few who chose to do it the Oedipus way, leaving everything behind and embarking upon a world tour as a back packer (lol). It's precisely this mix of continuity and break and of being outside the ring of Taya and yet close to it that made him an excellent pick for the CMJD. We would be shortsighted to assume that the military junta would share a vision of Mauritania like the one defended by the opposition. It would equally be an oversimplification to think they came to power just to rehabilitate the status-quo and buy more time. Their plan is to appease both sides and keep them at bay while relying on time to effect a drastic change in the political landscape. As a far as this calculation goes, two years of the transition and five of Sidioca in power is a length of time enough to bring a new elite to forefront and do without the current one. But the worry that gripped the military from day one was that Sidioca may not be the winning card they thought him to be. As much they tried to rehabilitate him he continued his zero-gravity dive to the ground "huma yentruh elfug U Mulana yentru ettaht".

The support of the CMJD helped build a quick and across the board alliance that swept the municipal and legislative elections and looked ready to win by a landslide in the presidential contest. With money and power on his side, Sidioca could have picked himself up, dust himself off and went ahead to victory. Yet to do that he has to lead a bullish campaign and attract more supporters or at least preserve his edifice from falling apart. None of this was on Sidioca's mind, his strategy being "Ely will parent me to the helm of power". He almost did nothing to bolster his credibility, losing permanently to the opposition and ZZ, who is allegedly running on behalf of the old regime's cronies. Sedioca has made up to now only two public appearances, one in a press conference and the other in a visit to a small obscure village on the outskirts of Butilimitt. This happens at a time the presidential hopefuls are roaming the country, meeting dignitaries, holding alliances and sharing their views with the voters. He reminds me of a complacent Taya who in his last years was turning supporters away to join the opposition. Sidioca was acting like he has no stakes, or may be he thought the CMJD had toppled Taya to hand power over to him. Wake up Sidioca, we're not talking about the portfolio of fish ministry, it's the top post and you've got to fight for it. Whatever was running through Sidioca's mind it was not helping him to get back into the race. And the CMJD was quick to come to this frustrating conclusion.

This alone accounts for the cracks which start to emerge in the El Mithaq and the related talk about the CMJD's neutrality. Some were inclined to see that it's the beginning of a split within the CMJD itself between Ely and his powerful relative O. Abdel Aziz, and that Sidioca was caught in the middle. Nothing can be far from the truth. The two guys who masterminded the fall of Taya are not going to loose each other over Sidioca, but we always hope to see infighting tearing apart those who have power.

The truth of the matter is that Ely, faced with a defiant opposition and an ambitious ZZ, was running out of choices. He has to try to nurse Sidioca back into life and that will be like flogging a dead horse, a hopeless case. Or, turn his back to his promises of fairness and neutrality and undertake a new misadventure which will lead him nowhere. The third choice is the most reasonable even if it means letting Sidioca down in the middle of the road. It has to do with a negotiated deal with some key opposition leaders in return for the CMJD keeping its hands off the elections and abandoning Sidioca. It's in this light that the late series of meetings that Ely held with some of the prominent figures of the opposition and the subsequent collective and individual withdrawals from "Elmithaq" can make sense.

Sidioca, this is your lesson: silence and obedience are launching you as the biggest loser. Because of them you lost to Taya and now you're losing to the CMJD. Anybody else down the list "wasukutu ani el kalami al mubah" (lol).

mom

The Kidnapping of The Plane Ended With All Onboard Safe

Thanks God, the kidnapping of the Mauritanian plane in Las Palmas ended peacefully and quickly. Reports confirm that Spanish authorities captured the kidnapper whose identity is yet to be revealed. No sources have claimed responsibility for the kidnapping and no information about the demands of the kidnapper now in detention.

The big question that remains unanswered and should be addressed from now on is the responsibility of NKTT airport's authorities. Is it possible that they would not be held accountable for negligence and improper security measures at the airport and aboard the plane. An investigation aimed at revealing the truth behind this tragedy should be started and must not stop until the criminals who allowed this to take place are arrested and brought to court. It must be made clear that we can't play with the life of innocent people. It's also time that "Air Mauritanie" pays back for the hundreds of lives which were lost because of its immunity from blame.

We'll be waiting to see what would be the reaction of the political parties, civil society and trade unions and all the other big names. If their demands fall short of asking for an investigation leading to the truth, then "inna lillahi wa inna ileihi rajioun".

We owe these innocent victims to allow their voice to be heard and keep their story on the headlines until justice is done. Nothing short of this will do.

Could you believe it, while we were all trying to get a sense of what was happening our national TV was airing a show anchored by Ould Nemine on Female Genital Mutilation.

I just learned that it’s the Mauritanian crew which neutralized and captured the kidnapper.

mom

Campaigning Around the Clock, Ahmed and Ely, Ould Mauloud and Ely

It's secret to no one that the real presidential campaign is never the one officially announced and scheduled by the interior ministry, and fought off in the dimly lit tents set up nationwide for the occasion. Major politicians generally keep themselves busy planning their political ambitions all over the year. We often ask why the government and the opposition are caught in the same moral crisis of failing to deliver on the issues that top their agendas. The explanation is not very far to seek. It happens that both parties have no agendas other than how to be in power and are willing to go great lengths to make it happen. Once the election is over and a new government is named, the two sides embark upon the up-hill job of preparing for the next elections, an son on. They simply can't take their minds off it. Each side, in its own way, spends the entire year clinching deals, meeting social dignitaries and forming alliances to make sure that its passage to power will be smooth and guaranteed. When the official campaign kicks off it is always a time for fun and rest after a long year of hard work and long-awaited presidential polls ahead. It's a time-out for the political actors and a rare moment of celebration for women and children to cheer up and enjoy the boisterous nocturnal get- together. Generally by the time the official campaign had started, the contenders would have had a clear idea of where they fit in the pattern and the chances they stood in the race. This is why the parties which put more money in the show, buying more tents, having more pin-ups, more singers and so on, are the ones which by all forecasts- secret and public- will lead the race. Those who know their chances are slim usually keep a low profile presence.

The government uses carrot-and-stick style of campaigning, buying supporters with generous hand-outs, appointments and bribes and threatening severe punishment against individuals who turn down the tantalizing offers. In the opposition, things are a little different. Having nothing to give or to deny, party leaders in the opposition have to double the promises for everyone, everyone ready to listen or to join. While the government targets influential social and elite figures because it has state coffers on its disposal to foot the costly financial bill, the opposition targets whoever happens to be within its reach because it has only promises to table and has never been into power to do the pay back.

This political (mis)conduct has been in the making for a long time and is likely to continue through the transition and beyond. There's however a new change which is too important to be missed or to pass unnoticed. It is that the opposition is now fighting the campaign on the side of the government rather than opposing it. I am not talking about the national consensus which followed the fall of Taya and which all parties contributed to make and spared no occasion to tell us that they want to preserve. This is about individual initiatives with the intent to win the backing of the government. We're quite familiar with the government's plans to win some parties from the opposition to its side but the other way around is definitely a first.

I have in mind two incidents which took place over the week and which tell a lot about the grim outlook that lay ahead for us. Ahmed Ould Daddah was invited to the grey palace for a meeting with Ely Ould Mohamed Vall. The eye-to-eye meeting was held behind closed doors and nothing of it was leaked to the press or found its way to the public in any other way. I'm not going to dwell on the secrecy part. It is a second nature of our high profile talks to be kept away from the public, we're used to it. What's striking, though, is that it's the first time Ahmed was in the palace alone without his comrades in combat from the opposition. It's also the first time that he sat down with Ely after he launched his campaign, in Idini. The two men have high stakes in the upcoming elections and each has a lot to give to the other.

Ely is smart enough to understand he can't do two coups in the span of two years, one on Taya and another on the opposition. He is well placed to know that steering clear of the challenges of the aftermath of his coup on Taya requires having the opposition on board. Ely knows that to keep the demons of Taya in their underworld he has only one choice, and that is to make the transition a success and no way to do that without the opposition. Also, if Ely has any long-term plans to run for office, better for him to bank on the image of the savior who toppled Taya and handed power to an elected government than keep power for himself or set up a weak government by proxy. I'm not with view that Ely is so stupid to follow in the lead of the former dictator. For him, Ahmed is the right man at the right time to do this mission quite possible. So far this looks quite familiar. There's nothing strange in the government trying to use the opposition for its ends. But for the opposition to court the favors of the government instead of attacking it is the novelty. We expect candidates from the opposition to make good scores in elections by criticizing the record of the government, not by rallying behind it. Yet this is what Ahmed is exactly doing and it's not in vain. In fact, Ahmed has never been so out of shape in his long history in the opposition. Except for the brief break of political uncertainty which followed the ousting of Taya, Ahmed has been on a race down to the bottom. It's no secret that he has lost his support among the Negro-African communities for number of parties, including his rival enemy PRDS and his rival friend Ould Mauloud, attracted "Rumuz ALfasad" and lost them, and to compound it all there emerged Ould Hananna to take way the Reformists. With Massud, there is no love lost. Ahmed is on a daily political diet constantly losing more weight to friends and foes alike, reason why he failed to rally the opposition under his leadership.

With this miserable score Ahmed went to meet Ely alone in the palace. And make no mistakes, his aim was not to have the hands of Ely off the political process but quite the contrary, to get him more involved but on his side. We have to wait to find out whether Ely is ready to go that far. But as we can tell from Ely's plans he certainly doesn't have any interest in making a Sidioca out of Ahmed. He wants a strong Ahmed in the opposition, to allow a smooth transition, but not in the leadership of the country. Period. Ahmed, did you learn your lesson? Apparently, the answer is no.

The other incident in this "anti-campaign" by the opposition is the funny news that Ould Mauloud was the guest of Ely Cheikh Ould Mama. It's becoming a trend for the opposition leaders to be fond of people who have "Ely as a first name". I don't know why, but Ould Maulould on the dinner table of Ely Cheikh is not something that you're likely to see everyday. What a mix: a revolutionary with Marxist credentials with a Sufi Cheikh. What do you make of this? I'm completely in the dark.

It's sad that we can no longer tell who is who and which is which in our political landscape. But one thing is sure that the opposition is becoming more and more like a toothless talking shop.

mom

19 Candidates For One Post, A Likely Fierce Fight.

Within a month from now, eligible Mauritanian voters will be choosing from a long list of 19 candidates who will run the country for the next five years. There is a luxury of choice, definitely. At the same time, voters will have troubles making their minds about the picks. After all, and irrespective of the standard of selection, there will always be two or more contenders who meet each voter's idea of the would-be next president, so much so that it would throw some into confusion. Just think what would happen if, by our mainstream undemocratic standards, you are called to choose between two candidates who are your relatives, from your region or simply paid you the same sums of money. Difficult and confusing choice, isn't it? As you see, more candidates means more chances to do a good bargain but also more second thoughts and procrastination.(lol)

Now, who to choose and why? The political landscape in its current shape is divided into three alliances: Mithaq, CFCD and the new-born Heidala camp The fabric of each of these alliances is so loose and fragile that it could crumble at any time and the parties which form it share very little else than temporary and tactical political ambitions. We're still a long way from strategic alliances based on common vision and shared civil programs, so much so that the current political formations can be mixed, reshuffled, exchanged and intermingled without any significant impact on the main political players who count for their popular support on sources other than party programs. This is why it's difficult to tell who is in the opposition and who is not, and whether terms like opposition and ruling majority really apply to our context. In the absence of clear and binding political programs, people move easily from the opposition to rally behind the government and back. It's never been an issue in Mauritanian politics.

You may rightly say this is a long restatement of the obvious. OK, but it's useful to put things in perspective before we can come to a view of the different contenders and how they rank. To play by the book, contenders who stand no chance for winning are not worth their time. So let's start by eliminating:

M. Ahmed O. Bab Ahmed Ould Salhi; Mulay Elhassan O. Jeid; Isalmu O. Mustafa; Muhamed O. Sheikhna; M.O.M.Elmukhtar O. Tumi; Rashid Mustafa; Ba Mamadu Alassan; M. O. Gulam O. Sidati; Sidi O. Muhamed Ahid; Outhman O. Abu Elmaali; Ibrahima Sarr; Dahan O. Ahmed Mahmud.


The following are the candidates who are in the running because they have plans to win and most important have enough backing, if not to make it happen, at least to make a strong try.

Ahmed Ould Daddah
Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdellahi
Messud Ould Bulkhair
Zein Ould Zeidan
Saleh Ould Hananah
Mohamed Ould Mauloud
Ould Haidala

Ahmed Ould Daddah stands out among his rivals as the only candidate who has enough experience in the business to make it to the palace. He has been around right from the start of the political process back in the early nineties and had stood for the top post twice as the leader of the opposition. With the exception of few other political figures, Ahmed is credited for refusing to bow to twenty one years of Taya's blackmailing, setting a good example of what should be a principled opposition. It would be unfair, to say the least, to overlook the heavy price he paid to stand up to Taya's ruthless rule. It's enough to remember that he went to prison, suffered financial embargo and was sidelined by the system for two decades. That's to my knowledge is a heavy bill for a third world politician to foot. I was about to make a breakdown of Ahmed's academic and professional qualifications but remembered that it has little or no impact on where voters think he is. So skip it.

Above anything else, Ahmed may be remembered for being the only candidate who has enough cross-community credibility to win over Arab and Negro-African voters to his side. This alone is enough to make of him a heavy weight contender able to rally a united nation behind him if he is voted into office. An experienced, qualified and unifying figure, Ahmed stands a real chance to fight his way to the helm of power in the next elections.

Yet Ahmed's strength bears the seeds of his weakness. Most would argue that he is the candidate for failure since he was evicted twice from the race and there's every reason he'll be kicked out this time. To compound his misery, what is championed as Ahmed's steadfast opposition can be viewed as a lack of political vision and flexibility to initiate a dialogue with the government and spare the opposition twenty one years of political dead end and inaction. Also, some feel he has committed enough mistakes in his long history as a public figure to be able to revive his fortunes. To cut a long story short, he has overstayed his welcome.

There is no doubt that Ahmed Ould Daddah is the most controversial candidate. He is simultaneously viewed as a blessing and a curse, a unifying and divisive figure and a regionalist and internationalist. Like all leading politicians, Ahmed will be aggressively fighting his last battle in Mauritanian politics. If he fails there will be no next time. If he makes it, it will be a logical and decent farewell to the "Last of the Daddahs".

Masud Ould Bulkhier, a second controversial contender most known for his radical views about slavery in the country. A Haratin human rights activist Massud, the second heavyweight in the CFCD, will be staking his future leadership of the country on a well-mobilized and politically conscious Haratin community. Massud will be selling himself as a breakaway rebel who has a tumultuous history of resisting conformity and status-quo. And while his appeal will be limited to urban segments of the Haratins, his uncompromising stand on state corruption and outdated residues of the traditional tribal system will find positive echoes among Arab youth fed up with a dysfunctioning state and looking forward for a break with the past. Like Ahmed, Massud has achieved a good score in the last legislative and municipal polls and is a challenging and fascinating favorite to follow all the way through.

To me, Massud is very much like the Lebanese Shia leader, Hassan Nassar Allah. Each is a vocal voice of opposition and a leader of a community with a long history of marginalization and persecution. Both enjoy a good deal of support among youth outside their communities. But as much as Nassar Allah is likely to be always seen as shia leader so would be the future of Massud, the leader of the Haratins. Not yet, Massud.


Ould Hanannah is inspiring and charismatic. An ousted army lieutenant, he succeeded to mastermind the first real challenge to Taya's rule, exploding his way to the palace on the back of a military tank. Though thwarted two days after complete control over the palace and other sensitive and sovereign state sites, Hannanna military adventure shook Taya's regime from its roots for good. In a further show of bravery and commitment, he formed "Fursan Taqiir"- the Knights of Change- and kept the heat on Taya until his capture and final imprisonment.
Apart from his ardent Arab nationalism and ideological fervor, Hnannah is scoring points all the way long and his popularity is on the increase. The news are breaking now that "Islaheen" –Reformists- have announced their support for him.

It remains to be said, though, that Hanannah's chances will be negatively affected by his lack of credibility among the Negro-African community and other large segments of the national elite who don't trust his political maturity to lead the country. Few will be ready to rally behind someone who puts ideology ahead of politics and national interests.

On his own, Sedioca would have fought his way without any trouble. Like anyone else, he has a long history in national politics and has assumed administrative responsibilities as high as the portfolio of a minister. This alone would have set him on equal footing with his rivals. Yet Sedioca choose to seek the favor of the CMJD and corrupt ruling political and financial classes instead of appealing to the larger public. No wonder then, that from day one he was seen in the political scenes as a trouble maker, triggering more discontent than consensus wherever he goes.

Although he will be a figure of continuity, Sedioca is a strong favorite who enjoys enough political, financial and tribal support to lead the polls at least in the first round. Honestly, five years of him in office is unbearable.

Ould Mauloud, Zeidan and Heidala will be there to feed on the mistakes of the others.

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The Political Players Are Up To A New Make-Up

When Ely gets his fiery temper it is the opposition (CFCD) which pays the price, When he is back to his senses his allies go through hard times. Such is the strange political wisdom that we drew from the public fall out which marked last week's heated political backs and forths. Ely caught everybody by surprise when he announced his tailor-made winning formula for the next elections wrecking the hopes of the opposition even before the race is underway. His angry message to the CFCD was something like "not in your wild dreams". Two days later he tried to set it right and correct the reckless political blunder, and announced his plans not to take sides or meddle with the political process. But this backpedaling took with one hand what it gave with another and while it sent reassuring signals to the opposition it alienated Ely's presumed friends, namely Sedioca who is widely tipped to be his favorite candidate. The veteran from Brakna has up to this point banked on Ely's intervention and backing to sneak his way to the palace and would welcome anything but a change of heart to the good that may lead Ely and the CMJD behind him to get their hands off the political contest. He is aware that a sound-minded Ely will not be on his side.

Now that both parties lost hope of leading the vote by playing a lame duck kind of attitude, they started a strong come back taking matters in their own hands, each his way. The opposition which was the first to receive hits from Ely was quick to denounce his move to hijack the election. It went even further than that by calling for a popular meeting in a rare unprecedented show of force meant to remind the CMJD of the stakes involved if it persists down that road. The CFCD's strong-worded massage soon paid off, forcing Ely to back down on his threat to consider the neutral ballots. What is remarkable in this show-down is not only that the opposition came out victorious, confident and speaking with a one voice but also that the CMJD proved weaker than expected. We ended up with an opposition united around a single goal and able to pick itself off the ground and a toothless ruling military body unable to go ahead with its familiar all-or-nothing style.

On the other hand, the story of Sedioca is making the headlines on the leading national newspapers. Until this point in the electoral run up, Sedioca has staked his future leadership of the country on president Ely's backing. He kept a low profile presence, preferring behind-the scenes lobbying to the risks involved in going public and talking to the media. Not anymore. Sedioca is now on a mission to remake himself and is set to demark himself from the CMJD. In his press conference three days ago, he kick started his mission by crossing the first of the red lines set by Ely, i.e. relations with Israel. And without going as far as demanding cutting those relations, he said in that it's up to Mauritanian people and not the government to keep or to cut ties with Israel. What is new in this development is that we're now facing a Sedioca who is ready to do without the CMJD, and embark on a rebranding course on his own. All the best Sedioca.

Is this new political realignments indicative of new era in Mauritanian politics, where the contenders stake their hopes of winning on public support instead of that of the government? Still early to hazard a guess. But with the CMJD apparently taking a hands-off attitude and content with the backseat, the major players are now aware that they have to shoulder the burden by themselves. A challenge which Sedioca and his discontents can't meet unless they are ready to throw themselves, heart and soul, into the electoral campaign, without appealing to or antagonizing the military. Period.

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